Weekly Review and Outlook: Dec 26 - Dec 29
The new bull market of 2024?
Image 1. Mythical market. Pegasus, J. Boeckhorst
ES Week in Review
Last week we speculated that an ATH was within one or two sessions of the weekend write-up, and Tuesday did no disappoint. Bulls are in control on all time frames. Nonetheless the week ended in balance as Wednesday gave a sharp shake-out of weak longs. This typically is seen as strengthening of the market and indeed the closing days of the week saw the index bought up, repairing the poor structure. See the below image for how the week played out.
Image 2. ES daily profiles
I am in travel once again so this weekend note will be short. Most folks are away and the week will be quiet no doubt. Nonetheless see below for key levels. My main level of interest is 4809 - no only was this just off the prior ATH, but it is also the point of break on Wednesday into the close. A very critical reference near-term. Levels to the upside have not changed significantly.
Image 3. Area of balance
Major data is out of the way for the year. Chicago PMI on Friday morning but this will be a comparative blip on the radar. Monday’s plan will be issued premarket.
Next Week’s Outlook
Pivot 4809. Expected range in bold.
This week’s references:
4870 (0.236 retracement), and SPX ATH
4850
4831 PWH
4808 ATH
4789 selling tail
4809 weekly pivot
4773 weekly PO
4748 Wednesday low
4710 break of balance
4703 NPOC
a) Buyers closing above PWH can see momentum above then targeting 4847-50 where sellers may be found. A lack of sellers could see a push into 4870. Buyer support is likely to come in at 4777 and 4750.
b) Pressure below the weekly pivot, especially early on, could see selling attempts into 4770 - a break could then target a retest of 4748. A daily close below 4727 could see the break of balance 4710 trade, a natural target for a retest. Much less likely and further below is the 4692 LVN and 4682 NPOC.
Sellers’ LIS early on is 4821.
Tip jar - support my continued work!
Your support and comments are appreciated. I do my best to respond to everyone in a timely way. Be sure to follow me @reverend on X (Twitter) for the latest updates!
Don’t maintain bias in the face of contradicting information! Capital preservation is key.
This is not investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any opinions, commentaries, and suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. As always, conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.