September 20, S&P500 Plan and Missal
Benefactors
Image 1. A new frontier shared by two husbands. J. Logan, Paint Your Wagon (1969)
Gold is again at ATHs, with GC ten points away from my October 2650 target I shared earlier this year. A month early. Oil (CL) appears well bid over 70. These come on the back of the Fed’s 50bp cut, and I think some repricing to the upside will come of it as participants in metals and energy were probably leaning more towards 25bp than the folks int he bond crowd.
I will cover some of these themes this weekend, as well as a blog on my top dividend stocks for 2025 in the Founders section.
Crow’s Nest
Once again, I refer to weekly levels, with main target on the upside around 5820-22. This was my expected range for the week; currently my volatility model is not suggesting much momentum above this estimate. I am overall expecting continued balance with possible exploration into and above 5800. This would mark a major achievement for the bulls in 2025.
Image 2. ES partial Wednesday RTH to Friday ETH as of 8h30EST
The plan is fairly simple here. I will use 5788 as the day’s pivot, Thursday’s first level of resistance as well as the day’s VAH. Bears look to spend time below Thursday’s buying tail, breaking the low to maintain the daily in balance. I observe weak excess at the highs - longs will look to explore above the daily high and into the week’s upside targets.
Note from yesterday’s Missal, “a look below and fail and/or failure to close the gap and acceptance above the ONH leans bullish.” This kind of guidance is important to keep in context and I recommend you mark your charts accordingly. I will share the morning low on the tape for the Crowstack crowd this weekend as it is an important lesson in gap fill / rejection price action.
Friday Plan and Levels
Pivot 5778. My volatility model is estimating 41 points with 8 points possible overshoot.
a) Defense of Thursday buying tail 5760, or early bid at 5770 look to an hourly close over the pivot. Volume above targets PDH to 5803 where resistance may be encountered. Further above are 5812 and 5822.
b) Defense of the pivot and time below 5760 target 5745 to Wednesday buying tail base 5740 which may encounter a bid. Further weakness targets liquidity at 5730 and value area 5716 at an extreme.
c) VIX pivot 16.90. Selling could be brought with prints over 17.80, with buying favored below 15.90.
Image 3. ES 4H levels
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