S&P500 Holy Crow Missal: July 18

Handlers.

Image 1. Lutnick. Let market makers ‘handle’ this one

Much like an open-reverse setup, a false breakdown (or break-up) of balance often sees a traverse of balance and continuation in the other direction. Mid-week was a five-point ‘look below and fail’, which since took us to a new all-time-high eked out before opex this week. Instead of today, look to next week for surprises.

Reverend Bird’s Missal

With the Nasdaq at a record 60+ days over the 20D, momentum favors the longs - until we break balance and close to the downside. Otherwise, the plan and levels have not changed much. The 6325 level remains the gate to the upside, which is now represented by single-prints that formed here in Thursday’s session.

As of writing we are trading above 6325, although I generally expect two-way trade from 6357 to 6300 for Friday’s session. This is a level I have been mentioning for weeks, and it is the precise overnight high. Momentum above targets 6375.

The main task for the shorts is to bring prices to 6300, then closing below 6275 to potentially set up another short opportunity.

Image 2. ES ETH and RTH profiles as of 8h20EST

Image 3. ES 1h balance chart and structural levels

Crow’s Nest: Wednesday July 18

Day pivot 6337 - Below 6324 leans short.

a) Defense of 6324, time above pivot and momentum over 6357 / ONH targets 6368-75, where I anticipate a zone of potential sellers. Extreme momentum targets 6390 and ultimately 6400.

b) Time below pivot and closes below 6324 target 6308 and 6300, where buyers may return. Further weakness however targets 6290, and NPOC 6281.

c) VIX pivot 16.75. Possible selling pressure above 17.00 while we can see further buying below 16.40.

Keep it simple, and don’t be a birdbrain!

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