Profile Mastery: Setting up Trades
Playing Short
Once again we return to the profile. This lesson will read the profile to select trades and train your patience.
Image 1. Don’t go ‘Fast Eddie’ on me. R. Rossen, The Hustler (1961)
We’ll use the profile last week to identify potential trades. The concept is to use one period to set up a quick thesis, and the next period to trade it. Let’s see how that worked for the short side!
Leveraging the Market Profile
Recall the study guide from CBOT. No sign-up necessary.
Image 2. ES profiles. Profiles in review, Dec 12-19
We will review the areas above. We start with Monday below, which had a clear reference from the prior Friday - poor structure. Please note that these levels have rolled over to the March ‘26 contract, EPH26.
Image 3. ES profiles
Monday, December 15
The A period opens with an open drive. High momentum continues into the lows. We are either looking for interest at the prior day POC (and a delta flip to confirm), or continuation on traverse of value - or beyond.
Image 4. ES 5m footprint
The clue is continuation of selling into B period! A very weak bounce on nearly flat delta invalidates a delta flip. Note the defense of the prior area of buying delta, highlighted. This invalidates our long thesis.
I lean short against 6890-91 in the 10h10 candle.
This trade gave another 20-25 points on low risk - with a stop above the mid of the 10h05 candle.
The bonus long (or cue to get out) was the inability of sellers to traverse the entire range of the prior day. Landing just short! Remember that 2026 is a very mechanical market. Once again we wait for C period, which finds support at the prior day’s tail.
Image 5. ES 5m candles
I long the 10h40EST candle 10 minutes into C period. To do that, I identified the area of two-way trade in green, watching the reaction around the midpoint. Couple with a strong footprint and tight risk, this was a trade worth taking.
Image 6. ES 5m footprint
More great examples: