Pre-market Update: Old Friends
Friday, November 3, 2023.
Image 1. Thursday RTH and Friday ETH as of 8h33 EST
Friday Missal
We are now OTFU on the daily as buyers have done good work repairing prior poor structure and ticking off a few NPOCs on the upside. The old business up to 4400 is clearly in this market’s sights - but there is significant work to do as volume thus far has been mediocre at best.
Yesterday’s gap held with barely a look below which saw an effective OTFU off of our pivot 4285 - the previous week’s high. This saw buyers hit all targets in the long scenario from yesterday’s Missal, leaving a triple volume distribution behind (image above) - as well as unfilled gaps from the week. We are looking at potentially yet another one today.
Image 2. Thursday November 2 Plan excerpt
The NFP has just released and numbers cam in softer than expectations, leading to an impulse over 4350. This sets up the scene for a possible test of 4400 and above. Despite the mediocre buying it is often better to drop any bias and get on the train - but remember context is always key.
Plan and Levels
Longs now look to continue their winning streak over 4331, the daily pivot. This was the upper target (and prior NPOC) from yesterday’s levels and now close to the PDVAH (4332). Sellers thus want a return to prior value and a couple of closes there to slow the upside momentum. Note the ETH VAH 4333 as of writing, these are levels of confluence and can exhibit a strong response.
Buyer scenario. An IB close over 4340 is a bullish setup, resistance broken at 4357 could target 4367, 4378, 4390, with ultimate target 4404 above. The buyer LIS is 4321.
Seller scenario. Shorts look to defend 4357 prior VAH, spending time below the pivot targets 4321 area of Thursday afternoon break, with 4313 IBH and 4294 PDL as further targets.
Notes. The 15.92 level on VIX is once again of importance today, this time from below. Note how the break of this level led to an afternoon surge into the final upside level for the day. Shorts want to see a cap on this level’ buyers want to see 15.01 supported.
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