Pre-market Update
Thursday Sept 28, 2023.
Image 1. Wednesday RTH and Thursday ETH as of 8h30 EST.
Thursday Missal
Despite the violent upswing into the close yesterday, a reminder that we are still one-time framing down (OTFD) - no previous daily high has been broken for seven trading days. I have not seen this in quite some time, even if the total sell off from the local high (7.5%+) is not a record-setter by any means. The LOD was marked just a few points off of our last daily level of 4274. Sellers thus remain in control until a previous daily high is broken and we see at least a couple of days of balance.
With this said, the plan for today is largely unchanged. Five-day or short-term value has now fallen further from 4371 to 4315 as sellers pressure continues. Today’s pivot is lower at 4303 given the lunchtime resistance which later became closing support. Thus far in the ETH session it has also shown support from the initial selloff from the European open. However the overnight action gives some pause - the sideways action implies that sellers are still very much alive. Think about it this way, in a low volume ETH session strong buying (or selling) sees less resistance, and a strong move into the close will often see continuation in the after hour session. However we did find resistance from our prior auction zone despite the many attempts to break it. Recall the chart below.
Image 2. Tuesday RTH and Wednesday ETH 3m chart with auction zones detailed
RTH Plan
Referring to the chart above once more. The upper bound at 4335 will be important for buyers to break above. Likewise, seller pressure (time spent) under 4300 likely opens up trade to lower levels once more.
Buyer scenario. Buyers look to close over 4325 in RTH early on. An hourly close above intraday with volume can validate some of the upper targets, with resistance expected at 4335 and with possible short covering to 4353, where longer term sellers are likely to step in. In case of further momentum, target 4365/70.
Seller scenario. Maintaining pressure (time) below 4300 targets LVN 4290 and sellside liquidity at 4271/4 once more. In an extreme liquidation case, psych area 4250 (levels 4256 to 4243) is the next major psych support, where longer term buyers are likely to emerge.
Note that VIX failed to reach 20 yesterday, but got close. In retrospect this major level may have been ‘too obvious’, and the rejection indicated that sellers were wrapping up for the day and a possible reversal was in the pipe. This is still an important daily reference, as an hourly close over 20 can see more downside to lower targets in the indices. AAPL will need to reclaim and hold 170 which is a major loss for the stock. TSLA is also flirting with a loss of 240 however this is an area buyers want to hold.
Tip Jar - your support helps to keep my work going!
Don’t maintain bias in the face of contradicting information! Capital preservation is key.
This is not investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any opinions, commentaries, and suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. As always, conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Let’s go!!!