Pre-market Update: Dithering
Tuesday, October 31, 2023.
Image 1. Monday RTH and Tuesday ETH as of 9h25 EST
Just a few notes I wrote down before the bell.
Pivot 4175. We are now in a three day balance area. The ETH session is a triple distribution market by 4186 and 4180, some buyer interest may defend this area early on. Inventory is long but close to neutral. There is a good chance of two-way trade in the session ahead unless strong momentum above ONH likely makes a hard run at 4203, above which risks short covering. However a look above and fail in IB likely sees a test of the ONL.
Data at 10h00EST.
Buyer scenario. Some support may come in to lean long at 4182, followed by 4172 Monday F period high. Generally I don’t want longs to lose this level however further support may come in at 4160.
Seller scenario. Plan is the same. Time under 4170 targets a break of 4160, with a potential clean up of structure to 4144. Resistance above the pivot may be found around ONH/4195, or at weekly pivot 4203. I expect the hard work to come in after this, to 4213.
Notes. Consumer confidence at 10h00EST may bring some additional volatility.
I will be watching VIX around 19.20, as per the plan.
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