Pre-market Update
Wednesday Sept 27, 2023.
Image 1. Tuesday RTH and Wednesday ETH as of 8h34 EST.
First of all welcome to the new subscribers, it is an honor to have you for my daily newsletter. Comments below are always open and I do my best to respond to everyone.
I will not be updating the format of our Missals any time soon - the next day’s plan is always shared the evening before (New York time) usually around globex open. Overnight (ETH) activity - unless an outlier event - typically does not change the plan fundamentally although at times I may adjust the pivot by a few points based on newly available market generated information (MGI).
So make sure you read the day’s plan the evening before! It also contains the day’s review so this educational component of understanding price action and flows is critical to your future understanding of market mechanics.
The plan for today is unchanged - pivot remains 4325 which represents the Tuesday afternoon break and price discovery point into a near-fill of the June contract gap.
Wednesday Missal
Buyers look to reject Tuesday’s afternoon downside initiation with a reclaim of 4325 in RTH with a hold into close - the intraday auction support and Wednesday’s pivot. An hourly close intraday can validate some of the upper targets - potentially to 4367. Importantly this would signify a break of daily one time-framing down (OTFD) and a potential reversal of trend. Sellers aim to break the 4300 psych level to explore targets below, the winds are still in their favor. The ETH session so far largely spent time in the two-way auction zone of the prior day after rejecting lower prices.
Image 2. 3m chart with auction zones
All eyes on VIX now as it approaches 20. It may very well attempt a test having come this far - which would likely correspond to trade under 4300 and possibly into 4280. However the index showed a strong rejection of 19.5 overnight - watch 18.75 as an intraday pivot for this index. Buyers want to see VIX return under 17.5.
TSLA has been holding up remarkably well, while further tests of 240/2 are possible this is the level to hold for buyers. Momentum over 252 could support the indices although this tight range is anticipated ahead of delivery numbers next week. Indices may be further supported with AAPL reclaiming 175.50.
Buyer scenario. Buyers above pivot will target a break of ONH / 4337 on volume, which can gate to 4351 where sellers are likely to step back in. A break of 4351 on volume targets 4367; 4378 with 4390 further above.
Seller scenario. Maintaining pressure (hourly close) below 4325 targets contract gap fill 4302. Break of 4300 could see 4290 (balance POC 4288), which may likely see buying activity.
Further on is 4283 and 4274 buyside liquidity. In an extreme liquidation case, 4250 (levels 4256 to 4243) is the next major psych support.
Image 3. Local landscape
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This is not investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any opinions, commentaries, and suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. As always, conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
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