Pre-market Update
Monday October 16, 2023.
Image 1. Thursday and Friday RTH and Monday ETH as of 8h20 EST
Monday Missal
Friday left us with a double distribution and a set of singles in C period - most trade took place below 4380, signaling acceptance of lower prices. Buyers made two attempts to regain traction in G and L periods, at 4377 and 4367 respectively. Both times sellers stepped in.
Noting the overnight (ETH) trade in the image above, there is heavy buyer presence bounded by these two levels.
RTH Plan
Pivot 4368. This is Friday afternoon’s buyer spike, a level of buyer interest from ETH, as well as an important sellside liquidity area from last week.
Buyer scenario. IB close over ONH / 4377 can target Friday IBL 4384, repairing poor structure which should be buyers’ first priority. Further targets are 4396 and 4408, which would end daily OTFD. Recall the poor high (unfinished auction) at 4419.
Seller scenario. Pressure below the pivot can lead to a test of 4356, representing confluence of prior sellside liquidity, the ONL, and Friday close. Buyers may step in here however seller momentum would then look to a break Friday low 4340 (NPOC 4337). This can expose singles to 4310, with a possible bid at 4325. Finally, recall the HVN at 4296 in event of further liquidation.
As volatility has returned, VIX levels to watch are 20.20, above which may support selling activity; and 18.45 - below which can be supportive of a bid. A LIS on the VIX may very well be 18.08, which could see sell pressure related to geopolitical tension cool off temporarily. Longs want to see TSLA supported at 247.5, and AAPL returning above 178.50.
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