Pre-market Update
Monday October 2, 2023.
Image 1. Friday RTH and Monday ETH as of 8h30 EST.
Monday Missal
Examining the profiles above, Friday made a double distribution at 4350 which effectively trapped buyers on the gap up. The session then sold down to close around weekly (short-term) value. Not coincidentally, Monday ETH has formed a POC around the 4350 level, once again trapping buyers above in both the Asian and European sessions. As of writing we are trading around 4318, just below the Friday close.
The overnight session is thus suggesting some weakness, although a counter-auction at open could see prices push to the ETH LVN around 4337, a level which we will use as our pivot for the day.
RTH Plan
Pivot 4337. Buyers look for a return above 4350 to pursue upper targets and thus moving value higher. Seller pressure (time spent) under 4304 will move value lower; recall that a break of Friday low 4311 will end daily OTFU.
Buyer scenario. Buyers need to defend 4311 early on. A close above the pivot in IB can target ONH / 4354. Targets above are 4367-71 buyside liquidity and Friday high.
Seller scenario. Breaking 4311 on volume then targets 4304. Maintaining pressure (time) below 4300 targets sellside liquidity at 4283. Recall last week’s low at 4277 and the weekly outlook for possible targets below. Observe the sellside liquidity at 4262.75.
Note that VIX over 18.70 could see further seller tests to the downside. A rejection there would see more sideways trade in the indices. Below 16.95 can be supportive of value moving above 4350. Finally, AAPL over 174.50 could help shut off selling pressure in the indices*, while TSLA bulls look for support at 247.50, and NVDA over 443 may help some risk-on appetite come back to the markets.
*correction: AAPL over 174.50. 10h13est
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