Pre-market Update
Tuesday Sept 26, 2023.
Image 1. Monday RTH and Tuesday ETH as of 9h10EST.
Notes
Given the lack of a test of 4390 in the ON session I am lowering pivot to 4370, the prior line of defense for the buyers. See Image below. Levels and plan remain the same otherwise.
Image 2. September 26 Plan and Missal excerpt
The 4390 is now the first buyer target however resistance would be expected at 4379 which was a buyer target on Monday.
Overnight inventory is net short which sees inventory correction 70% of time. However watch for seller strength out of the gate (the 30% chance!) given the trappy nature of the close yesterday.
Most of the price discovery took place in the Asian session, where Europe found some support at open. We have nearly made a full traverse of the prior day range - an open below yesterday’s VA is a bearish scenario and buyers will have to retake 4370 early on for a shot at 4000 once more.
Sellers can gain momentum on break of 4350 with volume, which opens the way to 4300. Trade carefully.
Image 3. A cautionary tale from my private chat at close yesterday
Image 4. Local landscape
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Don’t maintain bias in the face of contradicting information! Capital preservation is key.
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