Pre-market Plan: Missal

Monday September 25, 2023

Monday’s Missal

The support at 4362 in the Asian session (Friday close 4361.5) gave way in the European as seller initiation into and through 4350. A retest of 4362 saw additional sellers step in, resulting in a double distribution and a lower ONL. Inventory is net negative heading into the RTH session.

Image 1. Friday RTH and Monday ETH profiles as of 9h10 EST

We will be using the 4362 ON support as pivot. Sellers will be looking for continuation through the ONL in RTH while buyers ideally see a hold for a ‘look below and fail’ scenario. The final target in case of a short squeeze could potentially be 4407 but this is a less likely scenario for now.

• Buyer scenario. A lack of seller momentum on a retest of ONL may see buyers step in at 4344.5 which was a prior area of intraday sellside liquidity. Just underneath is 4338/40 which may also see some support.

  Longs above 4370 then target ONH 4379 where sellers may be found; Friday intraday buyside at 4390 and further above the lower distribution POC 4396 (see image 2 below), where longer term sellers are expected to step in. Trade above 4399 would signify an end to OTFD and a potential shift, or a stay, in trend.
  

• Seller scenario. Sellers defending Friday low at 4357.25 look to initiate beneath the ONL. This could then target 4327 sellside liquidity, where buying may be expected; and on strong momentum into the June rollover gap to 4302.50.
  
  VIX maintaining above 17.9 may support the seller case.

Image 2. Profile landscape. Consolidated daily profiles and June balance callout.

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