Pre-market Plan: Missal
Monday September 18, 2023
Monday’s Missal
Some softness overnight as of writing as inventory is net negative. A ‘p’ shape profile suggest absorption above 4504. Overnight trade was capped by 4507 which is no surprise as this level was shared ahead of Sunday ETH open as a level to watch.
Image 1. Thursday and Friday RTH and ETH profiles
Sellers have the edge while prices remain under Friday’s close of 4498. However sentiment may shift with an hourly close above the ONH 4507. This is therefore a key level to watch which we will use as intraday pivot.
TSLA maintaining prices above 270 could support to the indices, on the other hand a fail of this level could see sellers put on pressure. Watch what AAPL does around 174.53 - this is a level buyers want defended. AAPL failing 174 can see sellers take further initiative for a potential contract gap fill (see below). Finally, it is worth watching VIX for a potential reaction around 15.04, which buyers want to see defended.
Buyer scenario. An hourly close above pivot can see further upside targets attempted. These would be Friday VAH 4518-21 (intraday buyside liquidity to IB low), 4529. Further above is Friday high 4541. Buyer case benefits from ONL defended early on. Keep an eye on sellside liquidity at 4485-8 if we open above.
Seller scenario. Sellers need to keep pressure on below PWL 4494. An hourly close under 4485 targets poor structure to 4479 with sellside liquidity below to 4474, areas where buyers may come in. There is some congestion of levels here but further below are 4467 NPOC and 4461.75 rollover gap.
Image 2. Profile landscape. From left to right: daily profiles, five-day balance profile.
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