November 30, 2023 Premarket Missal
Failed break.
Image 1. A bridge to sell - If you loved 4500, you’ll love 4600. Tacoma Narrows
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Minister’s Missal
Yesterday I mentioned that the 4582-4596 area around the 4H FVG could be favored by the sellers. Indeed we saw some inventory distributed as sellers kept a lid on 4600, marking a high of 4597 intraday. Buyers made an attempt to break out early on in IB, but lack of momentum saw sellers take advantage of higher prices - leaving behind a poor high in the process. Note our lower sellers threshold of 4557 from yesterday, six ticks from the day’s low of 4555.50.
Image 2. Balance profile, Wednesday’s auction RTH
Subsequent efforts by buyers to reclaim lost ground were suppressed as sentiment turned against them. Often a failed break will see a full traverse of value in the opposite direction. Weakness was evident at other points in the day, notable at the C period failure to regain IB mid as well as the buyer congestion in F through J periods that saw them liquidate positions into close. This resulted in the series of lower highs and lows intraday.
Observe the profiles above as the balance area value was crossed until responsive buying was found below VAL. The weak close did not regain balance POC (or IB for that matter) however. We return to now six days of balance.
Image 3. Wednesday’s IB poor high
The strong buying delta (heavy blue) at the open was absorbed by passive sellers, seen in the image above. Observe the lack of momentum into B period, where selling delta turned into initiation easily taking out weak buyers. Finally, closing delta was around 12k, quite the reversal from the opening hour.
Thursday Plan and Levels
Pivot 4566 - November VPOC. We are at the month end of a massive 375 point quintuple (!) distribution. NQ and ES are well into overbought territory and an indicator of remaining buyer strength could be the day’s close around 4550. Observe the pivot for early clues in the day.
Buyer scenario. An IB close above pivot could then target yesterday's POC 4576 and then opening 4585 handle where sellers are likely to step in. Further above is 4604-4609.
Trade into 4550 could see responsive buying.
Seller scenario. Prior levels valid. A break of PDL 4555 on momentum targets 4544. If this Monday single print is overcome this can open a test of 4530 to NPOC 4523 in case of further liquidation.
Notes. PCE and Unemployment ahead of open 8h30EST. This has a chance to bring volatility to the market.
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