May 20, S&P500 Premarket Plan and Missal
When in doubt stay out
Image 1. ES Friday RTH to Monday ETH as of 8h15EST
Recall we are in three days of balance, with some more balance possible ahead of FOMC minutes and NVDA earnings on Wednesday. In the meantime we have some significant developments coming from Iran which introduce a potential tail event scenario. I would watch gold (GC) here more so than oil (CL) for geopolitical clue-ins. Regardless of the circumstances my prayers and condolences go to the Iranian leadership and people.
For weekly levels to the upside, refer back to the weekend Missal. Remember than balance rules apply - go with the break (on volume), and rejections of a break often see an opposite and equal (and often more) price movement.
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Minister’s Missal
The overnight is sleepy on net long inventory as of writing. Globex traders saw it fit to reject Friday’s high - watch the ONL in IB, as well as acceptance (time) above the balance VAH 4337 which may signify another run at the highs. Indeed the 5349 poor high indicates an incomplete auction, although this may not necessarily be tested today, unless we see momentum early on.
Finally, take note of the weekly pivot 5304 where we have an unfilled single. Buyers may however step in earlier at the balance POC, 5320 as of writing. Trace in this area or a test towards it will give clues as to which side is in near-term control.
Image 2. ES balance areas with zones and levels of interest
Monday Plan and Levels
Pivot 5329. This is just above Friday’s high. Expected range 20-25 points.
a) Time above pivot early on and a break of ONH on volume aim to close over 5342 which sets up a test of the high at 5349. Further momentum could see 5359 where sellers are expected to defend, with 5376 another leg above.
b) A close below pivot and acceptance below 5320 aims for the buying tail at 5310 with weekly pivot 5304 which buyers are expected to defend. Further weakness targets 5291 and seller strength a gap fill of 5275.
c) Sellers have a way to go but may see some movement with VIX above 12.48. Buying can be support with the index below 11.90. Additionally, watch AAPL at 190.50 as a market proxy pivot. NVDA 940 may similarly be used as well.
Image 4. 4H ES levels
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