May 14, S&P500 Premarket Plan and Missal

What inflation

Image 1. Who remembers these prices. Grocery store

Friday and Monday ‘b’ profiles and price action were nearly identical. Even the levels were functionally the same, traveling from near 5263 to 5233-35 - both levels you read here in this Substack. Note the importance of volume at these levels, the reason is that I expect participants to passively defend these critical zones. Which will take a lot of volume to overcome. I typically denote these with a “🎯” following that specific level to be overcome.

Image 2. May 13 Plan scenarios

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Minister’s Missal

Is today yet another repeat? Probably not - for one we have PPI which came through at 8h30EST, as of writing bringing ETH prices just a hair off of my lower targets (5216 the major one).

A minor note, Tuesday was ‘technically’ still daily OTFU, although it is more appropriate to consider two days of balance given the overlapping value areas.

For the buyers, the 5255 level remains important, as well at the 5281-85 gate above it. The same is said for 5213 and then 5192 for the sellers below. I prefer to maintain today’s pivot at 5255 given its important in the overall volume profile. Finally, keep an eye on the prior two day low of 5233, which was already called out (5235) in the prior plan. This can be interpreted as a ‘secondary’ pivot.

I see no reason to change the plan at this point, aside from reconsidering VIX prices.

Image 3. Tuesday ETH to Wednesday ETH as of 8h40EST

Tuesday Plan and Levels

Pivot 5255. Expected range 45-60 points.

a) A close over pivot and a break of 5264 on volume target supply at 5271 with momentum above bringing 5281 which passive sellers may defend. Further strength aims for the 5290-95 zone of trapped demand.

b) Time under 5240 and a break of 5233 on volume targets 5225 with 5216 / ONL (weekly pivot 5213). Sellers aggression could see 5205 where longer-term buyers are likely to step in.

c) Sellers may see momentum with VIX above 13.90. Buyers may be supported for a bid at the highs with the VIX coming below 13.30.

Image 4. 4H ES levels

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