March 4, ES Premarket Plan and Missal
Monday levels and context.
Image 1. ES 30M main levels
Welcome back from what I hope was a blessed weekend for everyone. Recall this is Powell testimony week on WEdnesday and Thursday, as well as important data (JOLTS, unemployment, PMI) all throughout the week. Some of my notes on globex and the day’s action below.
Minister’s Missal
Inventory overnight turned from mixed into net short following an initial grind higher at the start of the European session. We are still in a tight range as of writing, with buyers and sellers evenly split around 5140. This also happens to just off of the closing support on Friday - I will use this level as the day’s pivot.
Image 2. Friday RTH, Monday ETH as of 8h35 EST
Buyers want to continue price discovery following the break of a six day balance, ultimately targeting the 5200 threshold above (not necessarily in one session!). We saw some mini-balance take place on Friday so this is an early area of interest that can attract business before making a move higher or lower. The VIX will probably give early clues today. Recall that it is near a long-term gap around 13, which buyers will want to see filled for a move higher in my view.
Image 3. Prior week balance profile, areas of balance
Sellers will want to make an early showing, preferably seeing the VIX move above 13.70 for downside pressure. The magnet here is the psych 5100 zone, with the 5123 level of breakout along the way.
Monday Plan and Levels
Pivot 5140.
a) An IB close above pivot looks to break the Friday high of 5149, targeting 5157 initially. Momentum above can target 5164 to 5178-80 today, where sellers would likely step in. Buyers look to defend the level of breakout 5123.
b) Sellers defending Friday’s high want to spend time below the pivot, taking out 5130 to test 5123, a close below can temporarily reject the breakout. This increases the chances of trade to 5100, with 5113 sellside liquidity along the way. In the less likely case of aggressive selling, recall NPOC 5094.
c) Watch VIX over 13.70 for seller strength, and conversely under 13.10 supporting buyers. Longs may find trouble with AAPL sub 178.50, 180 needs to be reclaimed otherwise this acts as a drag on the indices. TSLA closing below 198.45 can see further downward pressure, longs want to see a reclaim of 202. A breakdown could aim to repair poor structure to 192.50.
Canary in the coalmine? While NVDA is strong in the pre-market, one stock cannot carry the whole market despite what pundits may claim. Regardless the stock can show continued strength with an hourly close over 845 ultimately targeting 857. On a daily timeframe, weakness would target the 824 gap fill.
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