March 19, ES Premarket Plan and Missal
Tuesday levels and context.
Image 1. ES main 4H levels
Apologies for the late Missal, I was quite literally away from keyboard! With a replacement keyboard installed on the workstation I’m back for another great daily plan ahead of FOMC.
Minister’s Missal
First a look at yesterday’s plan of action.
Image 2. Monday premarket plan scenarios
With the HOD at 5240.25, we got the selling zone to within a tick. Indeed 5234 is also where we saw support in C period and a close in D, before sellers took initiative in E period to grind down into towards the close.
The look above and fail (LAF) scenario did thus play out but slowly over a few period, frustrating myself and I am sure a number of other traders. But it was clear from the intraday action that this was a strong area of supply and needed time to unload inventory. While I did suggest 5210 and 5219 as possible areas of support (actually 5212 and 5222 after observing flows), I thought sellers would take more initiative mid-day. Instead we were kept afloat by these two levels for the entire session.
That led me to one conclusion. There was no interest to see a steep sell, as the gentle but steady unloading of inventory was the main theme of the session. We can see some of the fruits of labor taking shape in the overnight session (ETH).
Inventory overnight as of writing is net short coming into the session. With the exception of a spike in the European open, the entire ETH was spent below Monday’s value area. We have now pushed into the 5190 level from yesterday’s plan.
Once again keep an eye of AAPL at 174.50, an important level to hold to see the indices supported, in addition TSLA at 170 and BTC at 67k are important metrics for context.
Image 3. Monday RTH; Tuesday ETH as of 8h32 EST
While Monday opened with a gap up, Tuesday looks to come online with a gap down. Gap rules apply - filling the gap indicates strength by the counter party, while a rejection indicates possible continuation in the direction of the gap to appropriate targets.
Image 4. Daily profiles, ES
Tuesday Plan and Levels
I will raise yesterday’s pivot to 5208 pivot - currently the ETH POC.
a) A fill of the gap and acceptance above Monday’s close target 5222 where sellers may come in. An hourly close above potentially sets up a test of 5229 and 5240. Further strength aims to break the PWH 5247 to resolve unfinished business at 5254.
b) Scenario mostly unchanged. Time below 5202 aims for a break of 5190, which buyers may try to defend in case we open above. A break of Friday close 5183 can lead to a test of IBL 5173 to 5169 which may see buying interest. Less likely ahead of FOMC, but in case of a break - look to PWL 5157.
c) Again watch VIX over 15 which favors sellers. The same 14.30 level (importantly, note how this was supported on Monday) applies to buyers, which can see a push to reclaim higher levels.
Tip jar - support my continued work!
Your support is appreciated and helps keep my publication going. I do my best to respond to everyone in a timely way.
Be sure to follow me @rareverend on X (Twitter) for the latest updates!
Don’t maintain bias in the face of contradicting information! Capital preservation is key.
This is CERTAINLY not investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor nor a minister of the church. All information found here, including any opinions, commentaries, jokes, outright mistakes, and suggestions - expressed or implied herein - are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be as accurate a picture of trade as I see it, it is after all how I see it and errors or inaccuracies are practically expected. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. As always, conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.