March 18, ES Premarket Plan and Missal
Welcome back - Monday levels and context.
Image 1. ES main 4H levels
I hope you all enjoyed your weekends. The main event this week is Powell and FOMC on Wednesday - but we also have the BOJ policy rate (released shortly) as well as PMI to look forward to. It promises to be a volatile week, with the next direction breaking three weeks of balance potentially coming after Wednesday.
Minister’s Missal
Inventory overnight as of writing is net long coming into the session. All of globex was spent above Friday opex close, with a strong push over Friday HOD later in the session, now firmly back in Thursday’s range and indeed above the value area.
With a gap open almost certain, the opening action will give us strong clues as to positioning into the session and the most likely outcomes. A failure to fill the gap and find acceptance within prior day range reveals weak sellers, while acceptance within Friday’s range shows their strength. As of now I favor the former.
Nvidia’s GTC event kicks off today which can potentially support buyer appetite. Recall from the weekly outlook I wrote that 915 is the level to watch - over this can see more strength and likewise lend support to the indices. Even AAPL, which looked weak into Friday’s close, has rebounded in premarket above the important 174.50 level. Keep an eye on this one as well.
Image 2. Thursday, Friday RTH; Monday ETH as of 8h07 EST, ES EPM24
In fact, the ONH as of writing has nearly broken the weekly VAH, this will be a key level to watch early on. We are also above our weekly pivot 5202, thus leaning to buyer strength at this time.
Image 3. Weekly profiles, ES EPM24
Monday Plan and Levels
Pivot is Friday’s HOD 5202 - also the weekly pivot.
a) In case of a gap up, buyers look to defend the pivot, some early support may come in at 5210 or perhaps 5219. An hourly close above the ONH targets the zone from 5234 to Thursday open 5240 where sellers may come in. Further strength aims to break the PWH 5247 to resolve unfinished business at 5254.
b) Sellers defending the ONH with a potential LAF setup target a gap close to 5202. Time below 5202 aims for Friday VAH 5190, where a bid may be encountered. Further below look to PDC 5183 and IBL 5173.
c) Watch VIX over 15 which favors sellers. The index below 14.30 can see a push into the prior week highs. I have mentioned AAPL and NVDA above, additionally watch for support in TSLA at 167 which could lend a test into 174.70. may offer further support to the indices above 173.80, a level of potential resistance. TSLA will need to see an hourly close above 182.50 to attempt a fill of gaps above. Finally BTC could see some selling relief by clearing 71k, a level of prior support.
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