March 13, ES Plan and Missal: Catenary

Carrying nothing but its own weight.

Image 1. Liquid dreams. Rich, Hedgeye

Yes, yes, ‘supercore’ inflation is down, while CPI is up. Whatever narrative works for you to justify the higher prices and/or tepid buying - we can be up and down at the same time! One thing for sure, the market shrugged off a hotter than anticipated CPI.

So are stocks only bid? This may seem the case, especially if sellers stand out of the way. Why sell at worse prices when you can probably sell higher? Nothing seems to faze investors - higher inflation, war, even persistent rising rates. It’s all priced in! Or is it priced out…

Nonetheless buying quality was thin today, although I did identify a larger seller around 5135. Once again we have what appear to be very short-term buyers on the tape, buying at exacting levels - like the morning gap close into the prior day POC, and the afternoon dip just above the day’s open. Bigger hands simply don’t care about precise levels like these - if they think we’ll go 10% higher, what’s 30 points in this or that direction?

But hey, we could still see 10% higher…

If you enjoy my plans and educational content, you can show your support by donating a ko-fi to the link/QR below! All my work remains free. However a token of support goes a long way to letting me know I’m helping your trading and understanding of a (now hopefully less) complex market. Comments, likes, retweets and sharing with your friends is greatly appreciated.

Minister’s Missal

I’ll keep this section short. Volatility was great today for intraday traders in a 1%+ range with clean moves in both directions. This followed the (hot) CPI release premarket which found support above our 5171 level. My two main targets today were 5234 and 5250 for the buyers - the first offered a great sell into the 5210 area, which then bid up nearly into the second higher target. Buyers were clearly in control as sellers were not able to capitalize on momentum, closing the day near the highs.

Image 2. Tuesday ETH and RTH

So where do buyers go from here, and on what volume? I have some idea for the first part - the volume is up to buyers to show into the session ahead.

Wednesday Plan and Levels

Pivot 5221 CPI high.. We have the 30-yr bond auction 13h01EST.

a) Support at the pivot and an hourly close above 5240 targets 5256-58 where sellers may step in, with momentum potentially targeting 5271 to 5278 above.

b) Time below 5230 and a break of 5221 targets 5207-5202, below which can gate to 5191. Momentum below 5180 targets 5171, with 5155 as a further target.

c) Attempts at ATHs are support with VIX below 13.90, while sellers want to see 14.76 reclaimed. I do think AAPL needs to see consecutive closes above 174.50 to support indices into ATHs, a failure of 172 can see selling pressure n the other hand. NVDA over 950 may also support buying efforts, in addition to BTC above 73k.

Any updates will be shared premarket.

Have I improved your trading? This journal remains free, but you can support my work , by liking and commenting, sharing my work with friends or on Twitter - and certainly directly with a contribution. I appreciate your support: it keeps my publication ongoing and timely!

Tip jar

Be sure to follow me @rareverend on X (Twitter) for the latest updates.

Don’t maintain bias in the face of contradicting information! Capital preservation is key.

This is CERTAINLY not investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor nor a minister of the church. All information found here, including any opinions, commentaries, jokes, outright mistakes, and suggestions - expressed or implied herein - are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be as accurate a picture of trade as I see it, it is after all how I see it and errors or inaccuracies are practically expected. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. As always, conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.