March 11, ES Premarket Plan and Missal
Monday levels and context.
Image 1. ES main 4H levels
I hope you all enjoyed your weekends. Welcome back to what is potentially to be a volatile week, with PPI, a 30-yr bond auction, and PPI in the pipeline. Remember, let the trade come to you! Note that all my levels below are now the June PEM24 contract - I do not back adjust levels, however, as levels retain their significance over time.
Minister’s Missal
Inventory overnight as of writing is net short as buyers struggles to regain the contract gap open - we are now trading within Wednesday’s value area (VA). Buying and selling delta are evenly split around 5184 and this is a level that ostensibly needs to be recaptured by buyers, followed by a gap fill if we open below Friday’s range.
Image 2. Friday RTH, Monday ETH as of 8h15 EST, ES EPM24
Image 3. Daily profiles, ES EPM24
Monday Plan and Levels
Pivot is Friday’s close 5197.
a) In case of a gap down buyers will be looking to fill the gap; acceptance above 5190 targets the pivot, with 5212, HVN 5220, and Friday open 5229 as a further target.
b) Sellers defending 5190 target a break of 5173 / ONL, buyers may step in from 5158 to 5155. An hourly close below 5150 targets 5134 and Tuesday’s poor low 5125.
c) Watch VIX for seller strength over 15.35. Buyers on the other hand are supported with prints beneath 14.70. AAPL may offer further support to the indices above 173.80, a level of potential resistance. TSLA will need to see an hourly close above 182.50 to attempt a fill of gaps above. Finally BTC is nearing some resistance at 73k although support at 71k can set up a push into 75k. Support in NVDA may come with an hourly close above the prior week halfback at 904.10 - which can also lend a bid to the indices.
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