Feb 7, ES Plan and Missal: Inside Trading

Just don't look down.

Image 1. If a pivot were a road. Scott, Thelma and Louise (1991)

With just three ticks served above yesterday’s inside day, I am in favor of calling Tuesday another inside day. This is in the context of a ‘b’ shape profile indicative of seller absorption, the second day of the week closing above weekly pivot, and value migrating slowly upward as volume diminishes.

Just don’t look down as you floor the gas.

Minister’s Missal

Due to some personal issues this Missal is shorter than usual, but no less relevant. Our plan is largely unchanged given the second inside (see above) day following Friday’s action. Long story short here is to go with the break, unless rejected.

A failure of that break can see even more aggressive reaction in the opposite direction. Regardless this is a lot of pent up energy that will be looking for a release soon. Will it be on the US 10-yr bond auction tomorrow afternoon? Two FOMC members will also be speaking, but I give this less weight in light of the auction of a main benchmark US rate, one that affects everything from corporate debt to mortgages.

Image 2. Excerpt from Tuesday’s plan

Tuesday’s 4955 pivot was spot on, bought on no less than three separate occasions. This would have paid well despite Tuesday’s tight range. And the buyer level to break? This 4980 remains an important threshold, as evidenced at the IB highs. It remains so heading into Wednesday.

Image 3. Friday, Monday, Tuesday RTH, inside days

Wednesday Plan and Levels

I will be watching 4967 heading into tomorrow - not only was there notable order flow at this level Tuesday (at one point a 3.5k order on the offer), but also coinciding with the three day balance VPOC (4968). I lean long with a successful close above 4980 - or a break above is rejected by an hourly close back below then a short is favored. An hourly close above 4980 could result in another test of 5,000 and potentially gating to higher prices.

a) Buyers defending pivot look for an hourly close over 4980. Next up is 4995, and a break of 5000 could see prices into to 5007-13 where sellers may be found. Finally, note 5021 as a level of significance in case of overshoot.

b) Sellers defending the ONH / 4980 look to achieve an hourly close below the pivot. Below 4951 they target Monday’s buying tail at 4943. A break of the weekly low could mean a test of 4930. In case of further liquidation, watch the 4H fair value gap (FVG) at 4919 where buyers are likely to emerge.

c) The VIX below 13.10 can see further upside; sellers need to reclaim 14.10 to see a more meaningful sell. NVDA has acted as a drag on the indices given its weight and its position as the leader of the AI pack - over 700 can support the indices running higher. Similarly, an hourly close in AAPL above 189.50 can see a push in the indices - note how my key level for AAPL Tuesday was 189.20, which was HOD. Did the indices break out?…

TSLA longs also held 175 overnight to achieve 185. Now an hourly close over 187.50 can potentially see the next target 192. Finally, NQ 17730 remains a key level to watch.

Image 3. 4H TF, Critical ES levels

Tip jar - support my continued work!

Your support and comments are appreciated. I do my best to respond to everyone in a timely way. Be sure to follow me @rareverend on X (Twitter) for the latest updates!

Don’t maintain bias in the face of contradicting information! Capital preservation is key.

This is CERTAINLY not investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor nor a minister of the church. All information found here, including any opinions, commentaries, jokes, outright mistakes, and suggestions - expressed or implied herein - are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be as accurate a picture of trade as I see it, it is after all how I see it and errors or inaccuracies are practically expected. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. As always, conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.