Feb 26, ES Premarket Plan and Missal
Monday levels and context.
Image 1. ES 30M main levels
I hope everyone had a good weekend. We have an data heavy week ahead, refer back to the weekend Outlook for more context and data releases to mark on your calendar. Frist a few notes on the globex session before we get to today’s plan and levels.
Minister’s Missal
Inventory overnight is mixed but the European open saw buyers pick it back up into Friday’s close. For the record I consider that close weak; sellers may indeed have an edge IF they can can successfully defend either Friday’s POC early on, or at a limit the 5113 ‘gate’ which also happens to be a LVN.
Image 2. Thursday-Friday RTH, ETH, Monday ETH as of 8h25 EST
Buyers’ goal is to see an hourly close above this gate for a retest of the highs. What buyers need now is interest, or volume, to break into key levels above, most notably 5146. Sellers breaking the ONL with an hourly close below will aim for the NPOC 5077 and a full traverse of Thursday’s value. This can potentially trap late longs to set up a gap fill. Keep in mind this is not necessarily the outcome of one trading session however today’s close could set the tone for the rest of the week.
I’ll be considering 5099 Friday close as pivot for the day’s session.
Image 3. Prior week upper distribution
Monday Plan and Levels
Pivot 5099.
a) Time spent above pivot an an hourly close about the 5113 LVN sets up a retest of 5124. Momentum over 5134 targets 5142-46 where sellers may step in. In case of continued strength keep an eye on 5154.
b) Sellers defending 5113 and initiating below the pivot target a break of ONL 5087 (as of writing). This also represents the upper distribution LVN - a loss here targets NPOC 5077 and the buying tail at 5067 (also the weekly balance high). Strong momentum could then see an attempt at the gap 5052.
c) Watch VIX over 14.45 for seller strength, and conversely under 13.50 supporting buyers.. Once again AAPL over 184 may support the indices, it would be helpful to see TSLA close and maintain 195. maintaining 184.50 can support the indices. Finally 17765 on NQ is an area buyers need to reclaim to preclude a steeper sell.18070 may be used as a pivot for NQ.
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