December 29, ES Premarket Missal
At least you're alive.
Image 1. Learn but forget. Calvin and Hobbes, B. Watterson, 1993
Minister’s Missal
A short note for the last trading day of the year as little has changed, plan-wise. I will be sharing a longer post this weekend, in the spirit of an outlook for the year ahead (don’t worry, no predictions!). An educational piece is long over due and that is currently in the works.
We successfully built value yesterday entirely above the prior day value area as the POC shifted above the prior week’s high. Buyers did get tired toward the end of the day which saw inventory correction into the close. So far the overnight is sleepy although with a failed breakout to the upside at the European open - challenging PDL 4828 as of writing. The high of 4841.5 remains in ETH suggesting unfinished business, although sellers may show some effort on the final day of 2023. I will again be watching 4836 as the day pivot, with 4825 as further support below (200 EMA on the 30m).
Image 2. ES Thursday RTH and Friday ETH
Image 3. Week RTH ES, a lot of fluff - OTFU nearing an end
Friday Plan and Levels
Pivot 4836. Plan largely unchanged. Leaning short but sellers need an hourly close below 4825 for more aggressive action. Until then we can see grind or even a run at the ETH high.
a) Support at 4825 and an hourly close above pivot can test 4841 to 4845, with 4857 further above. A rally on volume could aim for 4870.
b) Sellers closing below 4825 aim for Wednesday’s low 4816, followed by NPOC 4807. Further target 4790 with ultimate buyers support likely at HVN 4776.
c) The VIX did no impress yesterday and left us with a tight range and balanced session. Same level of interest for the buyers will be under 12.20. For sellers to attempt 4800 they will likely need to have VIX above 12.90.
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