December 20, ES Premarket Missal: Achieved.
Winning streaks when they end
Image 1. World’s tallest building Burj Khalifa. Emirates Airlines
Minister’s Missal
This victory wasn’t Pyrrhic! From yesterday’s Missal, the ‘Flappers’ from the roaring twenties were a good choice for the cover photo as the ES hit an all time high of 4821.50 by the end of the session, indeed breaking prior ATH early on in the IB. The session was indeed supported by the prior ATH 4808 on numerous tests, indicating intraday acceptance. Indeed the 4808 number is the one I will be using in Wednesday’s session as the pivot.
Note Tuesday’s ETH session had numerous tests of 4803 which were capped ahead of open. If you were hesitant on the direction at open, the B period low was your clue to go long (I personally took the long there off of the retest of 4803). This is another straightforward way to use the profile. Resistance to support and vice-versa.
Image 2. Wednesday ETH as of 8h15 EST
Volume was otherwise very low however, and sellers while present were very reserved. The 30m footprint sums up the (in)action below. This is expected ahead of the holidays as people are away from their desks. Note the heavy buying delta at the close of the session. This is not a bullish signal as it is accounts being cash settled at the end of the session (typically the last 45 minutes of RTH)
Image 3. Tuesday RTH 30m footprint
Tuesday Plan and Levels
Pivot 4808. Overnight inventory is net short as of writing however supported by the prior ATH pivot. Sellers will ultimately look to break an eight day OTFU streak. Will they finally make an appearance amid low volume…
a) The 4800-03 zone may potentially be bought for a retest of 4815 and 4825/ONH. A hold of 4808 may signal early strength. Buying volume or little seller activity could see an overshoot into 4833 and 4840.
b) Sellers defending 4815 early on could break 4808/ONL to target the buying tail 4800. A return of prices below then targets 4790 and 4780. While I do not expect liquiation at this time, further targets are 4770 and Friday poor low 4758 to the buying tail at 4746 where patient buyers may be found.
c) The VIX likely hinges around the 12.54 level, sellers want to see the level hold and a closing print (hourly) above 12.75 for any sustained selling activity.
Tip jar - support my continued work!
Your support and comments are appreciated. I do my best to respond to everyone in a timely way. Be sure to follow me @reverend on X (Twitter) for the latest updates!
Don’t maintain bias in the face of contradicting information! Capital preservation is key.
This is not investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any opinions, commentaries, and suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. As always, conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.