December 13, 2023 Premarket Missal
Looking for sellers.
Image 1. Tuesday ETH and RTH, Wednesday ETH as of 7h50EST
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Minister’s Missal
It’s Powell time in the spotlight today with FOMC in the afternoon. Will this finally temper a truly historic from swing lows? The market took a hotter CPI in stride yesterday, closing at new highs on the year (December contract). This was in line with our expectations however as the market has been signaling this most of the year.
Perhaps reality will being to set in today with the double strike of PPI.
A recap of yesterday’s ‘look below and fail’ of the 4671 pivot yesterday, in the image below. Note the open and the A period close. This is a great primer on the theory and practice of pivots. This left a significant buying tail that must be the focus of any eventual seller initiation - in the form of a break of daily OTFU.
Note the grind up (30m OTFU with a rejection of an F period sell into ONPOC), with the final ‘snap’ of the unwind of shorts at the end of the day into our 4695 target. Responsive sellers were finally found around 4700 but trade was established above at globex open, reaching our final 4704 target for the day. Note that the 4715, or extreme target for yesterday - is now in sight for today.
Image 2. Tuesday Pivot 4671
I will focus on the 4692 level as a pivot, representing the closing M period dip where buyers were found. Will these same buyers be ready to support today’s RTH trade for a test into the 4700 levels?
Wednesday FOMC Plan and Levels
Pivot 4692. Note this is also a LVN from Tuesday’s session, the other lower at 4672 - right off the prior day pivot. Note the similar theme here.
Buyer scenario. Depending on the open, the CPI high of 4696 may see some bid. A hold of 4685 early on can see a push into and above 4704-5, the ONH as of writing. Recall targets 4715 and 4740 above.
Seller scenario. Sellers are out of the room until otherwise noted on the tape. Defense of the ONH targets 4695, 4685. I think the latter can gate to lower pries, beginning with 4672. Ultimately buyers need to break daily OTFU at 4662 to target 4645 and 4634. This is a lot of work to do but the FOMC presser is famous for range expansion so keep lower targets in mind.
Notes. PPI at 8h30EST, FOMC at 14h00EST, and Powell’s presser half an hour later at 14h30EST.
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