December 12, 2023 Premarket Missal

CPI notes

Image 1. Friday and Monday RTH, Tuesday ETH as of 7h30EST

Tip Jar - your support helps keep my work going!

Minister’s Missal

The indices continue to grind higher into the year end, with the December contract a point off of summer highs as of writing.

Yesterday’s ES pivot 4659 as effectively support for an H period break to the upside after a sleepy IB session and rejected C period break. Sellers were simply not present on the tape. In any case I wrote in yesterday’s plan that I wanted to see 4648 defended for more upside; 4653 marked RTH low. Later H period initiative found two-way trade above our 4672 level (price at the break), settling the day in the upper of double distributions. Our final 4685 target was achieved in the overnight session, marking a high by a tick (see above image).

Today’s significant event, CPI, is one of many this week. The ETH range is tight so far in anticipation of the release. I personally lean into a print at or slightly above expectations - which at this point I do not think is a necessarily bearish event as markets began pricing in higher for a longer last quarter. Still it is unlikely the Fed will begin cutting here or in the near future; they will need to see employment break before putting rate cuts on the table, and likely remain in autopilot mode until then.

Image 2. Approaching ATHs. Weekly chart

I will be sharing any updates after the CPI on Twitter (X), link below. Read on for today’s plan and levels.

Tuesday Plan and Levels

Pivot 4671, Monday’s LVN.

• Buyer scenario. A push above the ONH targets 4695 - if not achieved by any CPI print gap. In any case buyers holding pivot can attempt to establish trade into 4700-4704, while 4715 and 4740 are more extreme targets above.

• Seller scenario. Sellers targets below remain in play. A rejection of Monday’s upper distribution targets PDL 4653, with an unwind possible below with the break of daily OTFU. Recall targets 4645, summer high 4634 - areas of potential buying - and LVN 4629 to balance TPOC 4623.

  Ultimately sellers target the other side of balance value at 4615 (and contract gap to 4606).

Thank you for reading and be sure to subscribe to my Twitter (X) for the latest updates and commentary! As always, your feedback and questions are welcome in the comments below. I will do my best to answer everyone.

Tip Jar - your support helps keep my work going!

Don’t maintain bias in the face of contradicting information! Capital preservation is key.

This is not investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any opinions, commentaries, and suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. As always, conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.