Crow Calls: Week of Aug 25
Options Tickers
Image 1. Bill to the bell
Week in Review, August 11-22
Out of all triggered trade ideas this year, these have enjoyed a 49% win rate.
A win by the crow book means anything over 50% (and typically a double: momentum is great). The actual win rate is around 62%. With a reasonable stop, you can readily appreciate how a strong set of rules makes for a profitable enterprise.
Let’s see how we did from the last set of crow calls from August 11.
TSLA
Aggressive / high risk:
Aug 15 350c at 1.75. Be prepared for a 50%+ loss scenario.
Aug 22 360c around 2.80
Aug 22 375c around 1.45 can work well for smaller accounts
After publication, two could be entered with minimal downside. After a 50% average runup, these came back to entry. I’ll call these a scratch (per our rules below!)
BABA
Aug 15 125c around 1.00
Aug 22 130c around 1.10
These were fun! I filled the Aug 22 130c at an average of .77 (we opened at a favorable price for these options and continued lower), and sold at 140% and 250%+, closing the trade on Aug 13 at end of day. I consider that a win.
IBIT
Aug 15 67p around 1.45
Aug 22 64p around 1.00. These should not risk more than 25%
Worth noting is the high activity in the Sep 19 66p, around 2.90
Not triggered by my setup, given the jump in Monday’s open.
Totals:
One scratch (50% to 0%)
One win (-25% MAE to 250%+),
One untriggered (opened below stop - bad call! whew.)
So in sum, our hypothetical $1000 account from last week is up to $2500 (2⁄3 of our options gained $667, and 1⁄3 at $832).
Let’s bank some of that $2500 ($500 as it’s the amount over 100% profit) and take a look at the next couple of weeks. We’ve got $2k to play with this time.
Weekly Crow Calls
LULU
This one may be carving out a nice bottom (har har). It’s an aggressive play requiring quick reflexes. This trade is meant for momentum into 219 this week. You know what the stops are per our rules!
Image 2. LULU daily chart and option play area
Aggressive:
Aug 29 210c around 2.55
For a more conservative strategy:
Sep 05 230c near 5.50
With an extra week, I would be targeting a run into 225, with strong overshoot possibly testing 228. Below 203.50 this play may lose steam, we do not want to see a close near that - if anything, a quick retest and reject.
The next two plays are liquid, high momentum tickers that easily become multi-baggers on tight risk. You’re likely familiar with these, hidden in plain sight…