August 6, S&P500 Premarket Plan and Missal
Liquid clowns
Image 1. His turn in the sun. Haruhiko Kuroda
A series of higher lows and a close into the 5215-5230 zone on Monday suggest some support at this time. Recall that yesterday’s low was ten points above my pivot, suggesting long plays were potentially more profitable than shorts. This turned out correct, with a long at the open netting around 120 points into the day’s high.
If you enjoy my plans and educational content, you can show support by donating a ko-fi to the link/QR below! All my work remains free. However a token of support goes a long way to let me know I’m helping your trading and understanding of (now hopefully less) complex market principles. Comments, likes, retweets and sharing with your friends are greatly appreciated.
Crow’s Nest
We remain OTFD on the daily - it is up to buyers to break the PDH to attempt establishing balance. As of writing at 8h10EST we are seeing interest at the PDVAH, tentatively giving room to higher prices. Most likely VIX at 30 will be key, as well as the PDPOC at 5235 which I will use as the day pivot.
Buyers will want to see a bid at the lower end of the 5215-5230 zone early on to push into the ONH. Sustained momentum over 5300 could then begin to consider a gap fill, continuation above would be the strongest case. On the flip side sellers look for time below the ‘zone’ for a break of 5200 and a run at the 200DMA. Buyer excess there could begin to create a more definitive local bottom.
Extension levels reposted below.
Image 2. Monday RTH to Tuesday ETH as of 8h40EST
5215 - weekly plan extreme
5188 - buying tail
5146-49 - PDL / 10% sell level, daily close
5135 - 200 DMA
5122 - NPOC
5103 - buying tail
5079 - sellside liquidity
5049 - poor low
Tuesday Plan and Levels
Pivot 5235. The volatility model was quite effective Monday, today estimates a range of 95 points with possible 20 point extension (!).
a) Early bid at 5225 with a LIS at 5215, time over pivot look for swift movement over 5252 into 5276-5286 where sellers may emerge. Strength above this targets 5303 / ONH to 5314. Further above is the gap fill at 5232, the ultimate target for buyers.
b) Early defense of PDVAH 5252, time below pivot targets PDC 5219, PDPOC 5204 which may see a responsive bid. Below is the buying tail 5188, with 5170, 5146 below - with further zone 5130-38 (200DMA) where longer-term buyers may reemerge.
c) The VIX remains elevated, consider 30 as a gauge, over 36 can see more downside pressure while buyers can see relief below 27.
Image 3. ES daily levels
This material is to improve your trading and remains free. You can support my work by liking and commenting, sharing my work with friends or on Twitter - and certainly directly with a contribution. I appreciate your support: it keeps my publication ongoing and timely!
Tip jar
Be sure to follow me @rareverend on X (Twitter) for the latest updates.
Don’t maintain bias in the face of contradicting information! Capital preservation is key.
This is CERTAINLY not investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor nor a minister of the church. All information found here, including any opinions, commentaries, jokes, outright mistakes, and suggestions - expressed or implied herein - are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be as accurate a picture of trade as I see it, it is after all how I see it and errors or inaccuracies are practically expected. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. As always, conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this site, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.